Simla Wealth Management：Global coal demand is expected to grow slightly, and the high level of coal price center has not changed coal mining

(The following contents from Cinda Securities "Global Coal demand is expected to grow slightly, and the high -level trend of coal prices is unsatisfactory. Coal mining" Research Report Annex Ended) This issue of this issue:Simla Wealth Management

The coal price of production areas this week is flat.As of July 26, the price of the pit mouth of Yulin Dynamic Power (Q6000) of Yulin in Shaanxi was 835.0 yuan/ton, which was the same as weekly;Coal pits (including tax) (q5500) 726.0 yuan/ton, a week -on -month decrease of 2.0 yuan/ton.

Inland electricity coal consumption rises during the daily consumption.As of July 26, the Qinhuangdao Military Railway arrived at 4410 cars this week, a week -on -month decrease of 7.70%; Qinhuangdao port throughput was 392,000 tons, a week -on -month decrease of 17.30%.The average inventory level of important domestic ports (Qinhuangdao, Caofeidian, and Sinotrans, and Sinotrans, Division of Beijing Port) was 12.278 million tons, a decrease of 321,000 tons from 12.598 million tons last week, and a week -on -month decrease of 2.54%.As of July 25, the coal inventory of seventeen provinces inland provinces increased by 1.519 million tons from last week, an increase of 2.05%month -on -month.Fall 2.10 days.

The price of power coal of ports has increased from the previous month.Port Power Coal: As of July 26, Qinhuangdao Port Power Coal (Q5500) Shanxi's market price was 851.0 yuan/ton, which rose 3.0 yuan/ton on a weekly period.As of July 26, Newcaser's NewC5500 card power coal FOB spot price was $ 90.1/ton, and the weekly was the same;FOB's spot price is $ 87.0/ton, and the weekly decreases $ 1.0/ton.

In terms of coke: The overall market has weakened and moved down.Origin Index: As of July 26, 2024, Fenwei CCI Luliangzhun First -level Metallurgical Focus was reported to 1810 yuan/ton, which was the same as the weekly.Port index: CCI Rizhao No. 1 Metallurgical Jiao reported to 1,850 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 130 yuan/ton.In summary, the coke market this week is weak and stable; affected by the conversion of the new and old national standards of the thread, the concentration of steel is sold, the stack of steel is located in the off -season of consumption, the price continues to decline, the overall profit of steel mills, the market sentiment to pessimistic, the expectations of coke to decrease expectedStrong, there is a control of steel mills in procurement, but the overall inventory of the steel mill is still low, and there is still a urging behaviorMumbai Investment. There is no obvious inventory accumulation in the coke enterpriseUdabur Investment. On the whole, the decline in the price of raw materials has led to the cost of the coke enterprise in the furnace.The losses of the stack of steel mills have intensified, the price of raw materials for steel mills is strong, and the price of coke is lowered. In the later period, the price trend of raw materials and steel consumption must be paid attention to.

In terms of coking coal: Coal prices are still below, and the short -term market is weak.As of July 26, the CCI Shanxi low -sulfur index was 1875 yuan/ton, and the daily ring fell 5 yuan/ton; CCI Shanxi high -sulfur index was 1745 yuan/ton, the daily ring was the same;Hold flat.In terms of coking coal, the price of steel has repeatedly broke the lows and the terminal losses are serious. At present, some companies have production controlsKolkata Wealth Management. The pessimistic market of the double -focus market continues to spread.The signing of the bill is not good, the number of mining points for price reductions has increased, and the auction transactions on the coal mines have fallen almost across the board, and the decline has also expanded slightly compared with the previous stage. The short -term terminal demand is difficult to significantly improve. Coal prices will continue to be adjusted downward.

We believe that it is currently in the early stages of the new round of the coal economy. The fundamentals and policy resonance are resonated. At this stage, the coal sector is configured at the time.Fundamental changes this week: supply

In terms of, the production tasks of coal mine at the end of the month were completed one after another, and some coal mines continued to be relatively low by environmental protection and security supervision, and the total supply of coal supply was limited.This week, the capacity utilization rate of the three provinces of Jin and Shaanxi was 81.9%, and the weekly decreased by 1.3 percentage points.In terms of demand, 175,000 tons/day (+6.82%) of 17 provinces inland consumption of 17 provinces, and 88,000 tons/day (+4.18%) per day in 8 provinces of the coastal 8 provinces.In terms of non-electrical demand, chemical industry consumption of coal consumption decreased by 131,800 tons/day (-2.27%); the operating rate of steel blast furnaces was 82.3%(-0.3 percentage point); the utilization rate of cement mature capacity was 46.2%(-7.3 percentage points).In terms of price, the price of port coal this week was running smoothly (this week Qin and Hong Kong Q5500 coal price was closed at 851 yuan/ton, and the weekly increased by 3 yuan/ton; the main coke coal of Beijing and Tanggang received 2050 yuan/ton, a week -on -month decrease of 20 yuan/ton month -on -monthTo.It is worth noting that the International Energy Agency believes that despite the rapid expansion of renewable energy power generation capacity, due to the strong growth of power consumption in India and India and other economies, global coal consumption is expected to continue to increase slightly today.At the same time, although coal prices have risen to the level before the global energy crisis, coal prices are still at a high level due to inflation pressure.Core viewpoint of coal configuration: From the fundamental perspective of coal supply and demand, with the increase in high -temperature weather driving power plants per day (in the third quarter of the year, electric coal consumption is significantly higher than the second quarter)The resumption of infrastructure projects is expected to gradually improve, and the domestic coal supply shrinkage is contracted under the continuous constraints of overlay safety supervision (from January to June of the 24th year, the production of raw coal production in the country decreased by 1.7%year-on-year. We expect the annual output to decrease year-on-year.Coal prices have continued to be inverted, hydropower has weakened the effect of thermal power extrusion, and overseas coal prices continue to maintain high or triggered imported coal reduction. We expect that as the overall consumption increases and the non -electricity demand continues to improve the marginal improvement, the price of power coal will still increase.The price of kinetic energy is expected to rebound more.From the perspective of our underlying logic of the coal investment, one of which is the bottom investment logic of the shortage of coal production capacity, that is, the supply and demand supply of coal supply and demand is the most critical, supply non -elasticity and demand is elastic, and the industry prosperity cycle is still in the upsurge period.The most important support for investment in coal assets.Second, the bottom of the coal price and the center of the center have stood up to the new platform, that is, the current normal fluctuations in the off -peak season of coal prices should be objectively viewed.With the support of transportation costs, especially under the repeated pressure of coal prices in recent years, coal prices have bottom support and the center is still at a relatively high level.Third, the core asset attributes of high -quality coal companies high profit, high cash flow, and high ROE have not changed, that is, under the support of the bottom of the coal price, high -quality coal companies with excellent resource endowment, low mining costs, and long service life are still expected to maintainThe higher ROE level (15%-20%) and profitability are still a very competitive core asset.Fourth, the judgment of coal assets is relatively underestimated and the overall valuation will still be improved, that is, the coal sector has high Beta characteristics. Comprehensive consideration of first-level market considerations, last round of production capacity cycle interpretation, PB-ROE valuation valueIn contrast, dividend rate border reduction, etc., the coal plate is expected to turn from profit -driven to valuation drive, and the market value returns to reasonable value. The increase in the valuation of the core leading enterprise is also expected to drive the overall valuation of the sector to repair and fulfill.From the perspective of the coal asset allocation strategy, we believe that the coal sector has high dividend marginal support in the downward regulation.Coal assets are still very cost -effective, high -win and high odds assets.At present, some coal listed companies have released semi -annual reports of performance previews. As the market expects higher market expectations, the coal sector ushered in a large recovery, and the opportunity of emotional panic again will appear again.When we enter the good opportunity, we continue to look at the coal, and once again remind that we must be determined to configure each other.In general, in the context of great energy inflation, we believe that the tight coal supply and demand pattern in the next 3-5 years has not changed. High-quality coal companies still have the attributes of high barriers, high cash, high dividends, and high dividends.Promoting the valuation of the sector to reshape, the sector has both investment offensive and defensive and cost -effective. After the short -term sector is adjusted, it has highlighted high investment value. It is recommended to focus on the current coal allocation opportunities at this stage.

Investment suggestion: Combined with our research and judgment on the energy production capacity cycle, we believe that under the situation of the increase in coal production in the country, the tightening and tightening situation of coal supply may continue to continue the entire "14th Five -Year Plan" or even the "Fifteenth Five -Year Plan", or we need to need New planning and construction of a number of high -quality production capacity to ensure the demand for energy coal in my country for medium- and long -term energy.In the context of the acceleration of coal layout, the investment of resource bills and ton coal investment, the rise of the rigid cost of economic development is expected to support the high level of coal prices.Highly certainty.At present, the coal sector has high performance, high cash, and high -scoring attributes, superimposed in the industry's high prosperity, long cycle, high barriers, and upside down in low valuation and primary and secondary valuations.We continue to look at the multi -coal sector and continue to recommend attention to the historic configuration opportunities of coal.Focusing on the bottom up: First, Yankuang Energy, Guanghui Energy, Shaanxi Coal Industry, Shanmei International, and Jinkong Coal Industry with large space and extension of the space and excellent resource endowment;Value re -estimation improvement of coal central enterprises India, India, China, China Coal Energy, New Energy, etc. Third, the high -quality metallurgical coal company of global resources, Huaibei Mining, Shanxi coking coal, Xunan Enhanng, Panjiang sharesAt the same time, it is recommended to pay attention to related targets such as energy chemical, electrical investment energy, orchid innovation and Huayang, as well as related opportunities in the field of coal production and construction under the new round of production capacity cycle, such as Tiandi Technology and Tianma Zhikong.

Risk factors: Coal mine safety accidents occur in key companies; downstream energy -consuming power departments continue to restrict large -scale production; macroeconomic exceeding expectations have declined.

Hyderabad Investment