Udabur Wealth Management：U.S.-IDIA TIES Remain Fundamentally Fragile

For the united states, foreign policy has always ben a mix of securez and promoting values, and india Checks the box on Multiple Count. ND New Delhi Routinely Highlight that the World's Oldest Democracy, The UniversityDemocracy, India. Partnering with India Holds Immense Promise for U.S. Security Interests As Well, Particularly Washington's Strategy to Country China.

But Despite WideSpream Optimism About the Future of the U.S.-ndia PARTNERSHIP, Relations Are Considrably More Fragile. Countries Continue to Experience Frict in Several Areas that, if left unaddressed, Could Ultimately Undermine or Even Derail FuturesThen, then

On Democratic Values, for Instance, The United States Holds Deepening Concesss that Prime MINISTERNDRA MODRA MODI and HIS HINDEU NANATA PANATA PANA PANA PANA PANAP Making India less to minorities, especially muslims. In 2019, the modi government revoked the special semi-Autonomous Status & mdash; Granted Under Article 370 of the Indian Constitution & Mdash; of Jammu and Kashmir, A Muslim-Majority Region. Since then Iris have sufffered from repressive government policies that includeurbs to freedom of expression, and the Other Basic Rights, AccordingTo Human Rights Watch.

Later that year, the Indian Parliament passed the citizenship actment action, providing a face for non-muslims in Afghanistan, bangladesh ndian citizens & mdash; a move that the u.S. Commission on International RELIGIOUS FREEDOM CONDEMNED As "A SIGNIFICANT DOWNWARD TRNIn Rothingomom in India. "After Being Held up for Years Because of Numerous Protests, The Law Finalit Into Effect This March. In January, Uration of a New Hindu Temple in Ayodhya, KNOWN AS RAM MANDIR, Built on the Ruins ofThe 16th Century Babri Mosque Mosque that hindu nationalist tore double in 1992, raise is fastful inia's future as a second tolerat nation.

Many Policymakers in Washington Continue to be conferned that mode and the bjp have transformed india into an Illiberal democrat. In 2021, freed house downloadRade D India's Score from "Free" to "Partly Free," "Rising Violence and Discriminate Policies Affecting The Muslim Population"Freedom House Further Observed in this Year's Report that Modi's Government Engages in the" Harassment of Journalists, NONGOVERNMENTAL ORGANINATION (NGOS), And Other Government Critics "and that" the bjp has increasingly used government institutions to target polical options. "

Notbly, all of the activities have grown under modi, who is up for reeities in the April and Will Likely Win in a Landslide. BOUT The State of U.S. Democracy, GIVEN Such Events as the VioLENT Storming of the U.S.Capitol on January 6, 2021.

Last Week, The Indian Government Upped the Ante by Arresting Arvind Kejriwal, The Chief Minister of the Delhi Capital Territory, ostensible on Corruption CHARGES; Kejriwal AlsoPens to be an outSpoken Critic of Modi and A Member of the OPPOSITION less.Arrests of Prominent Politicians ahead of the Elect. IRS. "India WAS Also Angered when u.s. Embassy in New Delhi Invited Several Kashmiri ActivisWeek.

Recent Reports That India May Have Backed Covert Missions to Commit Extrajudicial Killings in Canada and The UNITED States Have Shocked ASH; And Called the Idea of ​​Shared Values ​​into Question. In the case in Canada, India is account of users to murder the sizeSeparatist Hardeep Singh Nijjar in 2023. Since Canadian Prime Minister Justin TRUDEEAU's Shocking Revelation of the Allegration in SepTember, New Delhi Has Complied THATA OTTA OTTA OTTA OTTA OTTA OTTA OTTA OTTA OTTA OTTA OTTA OTTA OTTA OTTA OTTA OTTA OTTA WA Refuses to OFFER CREDIBLE EVIDENCE and Labeled Canada A "Safe Haven for Terrorists."

India Swiftly Retaliated by Briefly Suspending Visa Services for Canadians Worldwide and Demanding that OTTAWA WITHDRAW Dozens of Embassy Staff FROM INDIA TO Hieve Parity with the number of Indian Diplomats Serving in Canada. In Recent Months, However, New Delhi Has Prively Be more Willing to assistIn the inventivity, though a fresh claim by trudeau that indage,

Meanwhile, The Biden Administration Has ITS Own Trouble With India Over An Alleged Attempt to Commit An Extrajudicial Killing on U.S. SOIL. UTORS in New York unsealed an indictation charging an unnamed Indian Government Office with Hiring A Hitman to Kill the Leader of theOrganization Sikhs for Justice, Gurpatwant Singh Pannun, Whom India Considers a Terrorist. India Office Denies Any Culpability, Claiming that "Rogue Operations" " Not Authorized by the Indian Gover Nvolved.

Unlike with Canada, India Is Reportedly Coopeting with U.S. Authorities on the Matter. Last year, The Biden Administration Dispatched The Directors of the CIA AN D FBI on SEPARATE TRIPS to Discuss the Pannun Case with their Indian CountParts. In India, There is Palpable Disgruntlement OverA Perceived Double Standard that Allows Washington to Use Drone Strikes and Other Means to Kill Suspects and Militants with Relacted Impunity.

The Full Effect of the Pannun Case on the Bilateral PARTNERSHIP is Still Unclear. In February, An Indian Media Outlet Reported that U.S. Senate Foreign Relations Ittee Chairman Ben Cardin Planned to Place a Hold on the U.S. Sale of MQ-9 Drones to India Until ItWAS CLEAR that Modi's Government was credible assisting the U.S. Investigation. Although Cardin Ultimately Decided Not to Place A Hold on the Sale After Months of whhwwhs at he Called "PainStaking" Negotiations with the Biden Administration, it is clear that there are grewblems on capitol herAbout Recent Indian Behavior that Might Start Impacting the Relationship If the White House DOES Not Take a Tougher Line.

Concerns in Washington About India's Illiberalism are likely to grow in the coming yearUdabur Wealth Management. The highly popular modi is all but crtain to be reelelect through. AN D IS Entirely Possible that when he finial leaves office, an event more exclusivelyEmerged & mdash; Such as home minister amit shah or Uttar Pradesh Chief minister yogi adition. ShahhahNew Delhi Wealth Management. Eminister, "Has Routinely Defended Modi's Record as Chief Minister of Gujarat During The 2002 Mass Violence Against Muslims,Which Modi Was Accused of Condoning.

In December, for Example, Shah Boasted that Modi Had "Taugy A Lesson" to Muslims. In 2019, Shah Also Refergal Muslim Immigrants as "Termites" who next T o be Thrown Into the Bay of Bengal. And AMNESTY International Has Criticized Adithanath, a hindu monk, calling him a leader who users "Hateful Rhetoric that incites discimination and hostility aginst minority groups, particularly muslims."

Meanwhile, in December, The Bjp-Led Government Suspended 141 Mainly Opposition Parliamentarians for Unruly Behavior in Parliament. One of Those Suspended, Indian ATIONAL CONDRESS PARTY POLITICIAN Shashi Tharoor, Told The Guardian: "UnforTunately, We have to start without Parliamentary Democracyin India "as Open Debate and Criticism of Modi's Government are squashed.

Worryingly, there are many recent exmples of modi's crackdown on Human Rights and Civil Liberties & mdash; LL EBB Anytime Soon. When Asked Directly About India's Democratic Backsliding During Modi's White House Visit in June, U.S. President Joe Biden Refused T OCondemn Modi's Behavior, and Modi Likewise Deflect.

FURTHER Straw the Relationship is the Particular Way in Which India Seeks to Have a Seat at the TABLE POWERS. ICTION, BeCAUSE It is antically to the u.s. Goal of Maintationing Primacy in the International System.Although India PARTIPIPATES in U.S.-Led Formats SUCH As The Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Along with Australia and Japan) And SUPPORTS SOME of Washington ' s Internets, New Delhi's Desire for Multipolarity Sometimes Manifests Itself As Anti-Western.

For Example, India Has Routinely Sough TO Engage in Multilateral Fora Explicitly Designed to Count & Mdash; ICS Group (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, and Five Recently Added Countries), as WellAs the shanghai cooperation organization (comprise of China, IRAN, PAKISTAN, Russia, and Several Central Asian States). GIC PARTNERSHIP with Russia, a Top Geostrategic Adversary of the United States and Its Allies & Mdash; for Which RussianPresident vladimir putin has moredia by calling india a "true friend."

On the eConomic size, india has benefited from russian Oil Sales, Which Help India Meet Its Fast-GROWING ENERGY NEEDS. Elhi Has Increasingly Purchaset Discountted Barrels of Russian Oil in ContraventionNow Russia's NUMBER One Export Destination. India has attached russian arms for dec defines, meaning that the majority of india's mility hardware is of T or russian build.

Thus Far, Washings Has Looked the Other Way On Enforcing the Countering American Adversaries Throughs Act, Which Penalizes That Purchase w Eapons from Sanctioned Russian Defense SUPPLIERS, with Respect to New Delhi's Purchase of Moscow's S-400 Surface-TO-AIR MISSILE SYSTEM.This sugrations that the biden adiministic views india as too important to the united states' indo-pacific strategy to risk angeering.

When Russia Invaded ukraine, Washington was hoping that new delhe welhi welhi, NING RUSSIA for Invading and Seeking to Destroy A Sovereign Neighbor & Mdash; An Indisputable Violaering of the Rules-BasedGlobal Order & Mdash; India Has RETAINED CLOSE TO ITS COLD War Ally. At first, Modi's Strategy Appearedidine the U.S.-India PARTNERSHIP. In Early April 2022, U.S. Deputy National Security Advisor Daleep Singh Visited New Delhi and WARNED of Potential "Consequences"For countries that attempt to undolmine u.s. Sanctions.

By Mid-April, However, The Biden Administration Had Dramatical Changed Its Tune. Prior to a Virtual Meeting Biden and Modi in April 2022, BIDEN's Press S Ecretary Noted That Two Leaders Would Continue Their "CLOSE CONSULTATATAONS" on Russia, with No InDicationThat ishington was prepared to take any action aginst new delhe. India did not have to confmn russia or make any Other Concessions, Such As Curbing Its Massive IMP IMP ORTS of Cheap Russian Oil. On the control, India Has Continued to Streangthen Its with Russia Sincethen.

For its part, New Delhi Also has concentroTon's InternetS Misality with ITS OWN. India, is quietly outRaged at up U.S. With Pakistan, Which India Views As a Terrorist State. Pakistan Army Chief ASIM Munir VisiRTONIRTED WASHINGTON In December forHigh-levelingS at the Pentagon and state department, and the biden administic has sough, AWAL of Afghanist to Include Nonsecurity Ises Like Trade and Investment. There is also a long legacyThe United States with Regard to Pakistan. Indians Recall a Close U.S.-PAKISTANI Alliance During The Cold War, Including Support for West Pakistan (TODAY's Paki Stan) During the bangladesh war of independendence in 1971, when west pakistani forces committed massacres agin -east Pakistan'sHindu minority.

Along The Same Lines, India Worries that the United States Could Be An UNRELIABLE Long-Term PARTNER. , India WAS Left to Pick Up The Pieces of ITS Own Policy in the Region. New Delhi HadMaintained A Strong Relationship with The U.S.-Backed Government in Kabul. But with the Return of the Taliban, India Became ConcericEd that Afghanist Couldan Turn to Being a Playground for Terrorist recruitment and tradeing, particularly for Islamist groups that hart will be well tower,as lashkar-e-taiba and jaish-e-mohammed.

Initially, India May Also Have Been Concess that Pakistan Might Benefit From Gaining AdDitional Strategic DEPTH in Afghanistan, But Recent Clashes Between The Afg Han Taliban and the Closly Affiliated Pakistani Taliban Along The Disputed Afghanistan-PAKISTAN BORDER HAVABLY TEMPERED SUCH CONCERNS. A Greater Potential Long Long-TERM Threat to India is China's Growing Influence in Afghanistan, Which Coulderd Have Been Avoided If the United States Had Stated the Course. ONS Including Access to Critical Minerals & Mdash; Will Be Feverishly Contested by Beijing.

If India's Own Interests and Questions of Trust Have even Seriously Impeded the Partnership, Frictions Certainly Persist. One Growing Bone of Content is Climate Icy, where india and Western National have class over proposed emissions trajectories. India, Alream the World's Third-Largest Carbon EmitterAfter China and the United States, have been enricy and dueopopment, IssionS We generated by the West, India Demands that the rich world bear the brunt of carbonEmission Reductions.

Climate Policy Has Also Become Part of India's Bid to Become the Leading Voice of the Global South, Which Could Give it a seat at the table of a new, Multipola W. ORLD. India Certainly Shares a Greater Affinity for Other Developing CountriesDOES for Those of the United States or The Other Great Powers. & mdash; It is concept of the way,Status in a Multipola World Over Washington's Attempts to Maintain the Global Status Quo.

ON RUSSIA, The Biden Administration has aLLOWED India to have my Cake and Eat It too. But if the kremlin decides to significantly ramp up its of deth and design in ukraine, then it is like that the united states and Other Democratic CountriesWill Increase the Pressure On India to Make A Decision on Which It SUPPORTS & Mdash; Russia or The West. This Will Especially by the Case If Putin Decides to USE A Tactical Nuclear Weapon in Ukraine or Take a Similaly Violent Action. If New Delhi Continues to SitOn the fence in such a SCENARIO, then its Credibility as a Responsible and Emerging Democratic Great Power Will Likely Be at Stake. Russia, It Could Signal the Demise of the U.S.-indezership.

Washington Could Also taken Actions that Push New Delhi to the Brink. If the U.S.-PAKISTAN PARTNERSHIP Is Revived, for Example, India Will Find It DIFFICult TO TRU St the united states as a close partner & mdash; event in counting China, their commit adversary. ThusFAR, U.S.-PAKISTAN TIES Remain Circumscripd Mostly to Countryterrorism, and the Biden Administration Seems to Recognize the Potential Risks to the a partneership. Indeed, Biden Pleased Modi by Calling on Pakistan in a Joint Statement to take "ImmediaTe Action to Ensure ThatNo Territory Under ites Control is using for launch. has "Nuclear Weapons with ANY CoHESION."

The upcoming U.S. PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION ADDS Another Element of UNCERTAINTY OVER WASHINGTON's Indo-PACIFIC Commissions. If Biden is Reelected, then New Delhi Can E XPECT more of the ame from his administration. If former President Donald Trump Emerges Victorious, One Can EXPECT A Similarly Close U.S.-Dia Partnership, but Outcomes are in the cards Will. o the effect in 2016, for exmple, Trump Included India AMONG The Countries he accountJobs. And While His Administration Formulated An Indo-Pacific Strates to Countr China, Trump HimSelf SEEMED Less and Instead Sough A Work ONSHIP with Chinese President xi Jinping Through a Bilateral Trade Deal.Trump administry on the u.S.-ind Attership is simply unknown.

While it is like that the u.s.-india relatedship will continue to improve, there are many putial challenges that the two countries will have to either or agree to iGnore. Washington and New Delhi Can Maintain and Build on their Tenuous PARTNERL ShaPE Geopoliticsfor the rest of the 21st Century.

Derek Grossman is a Senior Defense Analyst at Rand, An Adjunct Professor at the University of Southern California, and a Former Daily Intelligence Briefer to the U. U. U. U. U. U. U. U. U. U. U. U. U. U. U. S. Assistant Secretary of Defense for Asian and Pacific Security Affairs.