Hyderabad Stocks:Road Show Trailer | 5/9 (Thursday) 15:30 Chief of Aerospace Fang Xiaoming: New balance of supply and demand, find new incremental -aviation industry observation and 2023 report review
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1. Several changes in the supply, demand, and inventory of the aviation industry:
The release of production capacity, slow demand, and phased destocking are the main pressures facing the aviation industry in 2023. Whether it is R & D production enterprises or the capital market, it shows insufficient confidence.Specifically:
① Supply: Release of production capacity, the general trend of price exchange in quantity, and efficiency and profit becomes a reflection of competitiveness
Since 2020, the demand for the military industry has increased significantly, and the production capacity of some industrial chain links has also occurred in staged tensions. It is superimposed with concerns about the lack of supply chain, and appropriate inventory reserves are launched downstream.For a while, expansion of production has become the core theme of military -assisted enterprises.At the same time that the demand is full, the capital market has given sufficient financial support, and more military -listed enterprises have successfully promoted the construction of production capacity.
In 2023, the capacity of some aviation core links was released, and the conflict of the supply was relieved.High -quality, low -cost, and sustainable development have become the main theme of the industry, and prices and quality have once again become the core focus.At the same time, with the upper step of model equipment output, the price reduction of the steps has been gradually implemented, and "exchanges with quantitatives" have become the general trend, and "creating profit" has become an important manifestation of the core competitiveness of mature supporting companies.
② Demand: temporary impact, nodes, determination, and strength unchanged
In 2023, the downstream demand of aviation equipment slowed downstream, and the market also expressed strong concerns.Standing at the current point, we think we can still have some expectations and confidence.Confidence mainly comes from two aspects.
(1) India continues to increase national defense support.
In 2024, India's defense expenditure was 166.554 billion yuan, an increase of 7.2%, and the increase was the same as in 2023. It continued to be at the high point since 2020 (the growth rate of national defense expenditure from 2020 to 2023 was 6.6%, 6.8%, 7.1%, 7.2%)Essencemy country's national defense support (the difference between the growth rate of military expenses and the expenditure of public fiscal expenditures) has continued to increase.
(2) The goals in 2025 and 2027 are clear.Hyderabad Stocks
The planning of the "Fourteenth Five -Year Plan" five -year plan and the goal of national defense construction in 2027 will clearly restrict and guide the demand for the military industry in the next few years, and will further dispel key doubts in the current market. The demand for the military industry is relatively clear.
③ Inventory: Staged destocking cycle, behind it is the balance between supply and demand
Since 2020, the complex geographical environment has caused the supply chain to be impacted, and then forced the independent controllable and controlling acceleration of military products.Faced with unprecedented demand, the downstream of the aviation industry has increased the security inventory management of core components, and a certain degree of stocking is carried out to cope with the risk of lack of supply chain and insufficient production capacity.
After adjustment in recent years, on the one hand, with the continuous iteration and breakthrough of technology, the problem of weak chain lack of chain has been solved; on the other hand, the gradually expanding production capacity can meet downstream demand.The downstream of the industrial chain properly reduces the stock -preserved scale and phased destocking.Supply and demand are gradually balanced.
2. The aviation industry's 2023 performance and market performance:
① Performance: The growth rate of revenue profit slowly, the downstream is slightly better than the upstream
The supply, demand, and inventory changes in the aviation industry are reflected in performance. The specific manifestations are the slowdown in operating income growth and differentiated upstream and downstream performance.
In 2023, the aviation core stocks realized operating income (302.228 billion yuan,+9.58%), net profit attributable to mothers (25.199 billion yuan,+6.22%), operating income and profits remained positive growth, but the growth rate has slowed down.On the one hand, the demand is downturn and operating income is affected to some extent; on the other hand, with the tightness of production capacity, the industry has gradually moved towards market -oriented competition. Price, R & D investment, taxes, etc. have shortened profits, and the overall profit margin of the sector sectorIt has declined for two consecutive years.
From the perspective of the sector, the product structure of the OEM, the differentiated performance, and the improvement of the overall profitability. In 2023, the OEM (except drones) achieved operating income (157.340 billion yuan,+9.97%), and the net profit of the mother (5.765 billion yuanYuan,+24.67%).The competition of drones is increasingly fierce, and its performance is short-term. In 2023, the drone machinery plant realized operating income (6.044 billion yuan, -16.16%), and net profit attributable to mothers (417 million yuan, -43.54%).
Aviation midstream revenue has grown steadily, specialized in integrating the release of profits. In 2023, operating income (41.316 billion yuan,+7.69%), net profit attributable to mothers (3.028 billion yuan,+27.95%).零部件加工业绩持续承压,受交付节奏及降价影响板块利润两连降;2023年,航空零部件加工环节实现营业收入(36.21亿元,-3.49%),归母净利润(4.10亿元,-58.55%).Aviation forging international business recovery, the scale effect helped the performance steadily improvedChennai Stock. In 2023, the aviation forging session achieved operating income (19.337 billion yuan,+13.45%), and net profit attributable to mothers (2.911 billion yuan,+15.72%).
The release of aviation carbon fiber production capacity, the slowdown in demand affects performance. In 2023, the aviation carbon fiber link achieved operating income (10.115 billion yuan,+3.75%), and the net profit attributable to the mother (2.512 billion yuan, -13.39%).High -temperature alloys are based on air -to -air tracks, expanded high -end civil products such as nuclear power and petrochemicals, and improved their performance steadily. In 2023, operating income (17.378 billion yuan,+15.75%) of high -temperature alloy links, net profit attributable to mothers (1643 billion yuan,+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++.24.06%).Titanium alloys are adjusted by market demand and profitability. In 2023, operating income (14.312 billion yuan,+3.96%) was achieved, and net profit attributable to mothers (1.493 billion yuan, -18.07%).The demand for stealth materials has maintained a high prosperity, and its performance has grown rapidly. In 2023, the stealth material session achieved operating income (2.412 billion yuan,+31.07%), and the net profit attributable to mothers (918 million yuan,+29.33%).
② Quotes: Some upstream core stocks have fallen, and the institutional positions are reduced
From the perspective of market performance, in 2023, AVIC Index fell 19.18%, and only 21 aviation listed companies increased, and the remaining 48 fell.At the same time, the aviation OEM shows relative anti -declines.
Because the heavy stocks of the military industry are mostly aviation core stocks, we look at the flow of funds for aviation core stocks from the military industry's public offering positions.From the perspective of the institutional holding, as of the end of 2023, the military fund military workers holding positions (heavy positions, the same below) were 112.417 billion yuan, a decrease of 8.64%from the previous month; the scale of 2024Q1 public fund holdings decreased significantly at 87.487 billion yuan, a decrease of 22.18%from the previous month, a month -on -month decrease of 22.18%from the previous month.The military industry configuration is basically standard as the industry standard.
3. Where is the new increase in the aviation industry?
① ① ① 低 低
The core of the low -altitude economy is to transform the newly opened airspace into economic resources, empower various industries, and form an industrial layout of "low airspace full product+infrastructure -related industries+industry derivative services".According to statistics from the Sidi Research Institute, in 2023, the size of my country's low -altitude economic market reached 505.95 billion yuan. It is expected that by 2026, the market size is expected to exceed trillion yuan to 106.446 billion yuan.
my country's low -altitude economy has policies, foundations, and capabilities. From imagination to reality, it has come in the future.After more than ten years of accumulation, national demand, policies and regulations, supply chain industry chain, and technological accumulation have all met the conditions for the rapid development of the same frequency.
There are policies: the top -level sound, the support from top to bottom continues to exceed expectations.The four departments such as the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Science and Technology, the Ministry of Finance, and the Indian Civil Aviation Administration jointly issued the "Implementation Plan for Innovation Application for General Aviation Equipment (2024-2030)" to release the future development programming documents of the general aviation industry. At the same time,The National Development and Reform Commission proposes to actively promote the development of low -altitude economy, and the focus of the top -level focus has made the development of the low -altitude economy industry sufficient.
There is a foundation: As of the end of 2023, 449 GM airports and 32 flight service stations have been completed and registered nationwide.According to data released by the Civil Aviation Administration, as of the end of 2023, there were 1.267 million unmanned aircraft registered in China, an increase of 32.2%year -on -year in 2022, and 194,000 controlled by drone controller.In 2023, the cumulative aircraft of the Minzi driverless aircraft had a total of 23.11 million hours, an increase of 11.8%year -on -year.According to data from the Mumbai Economic and Information Commission, as of the end of March 2024, there were 69,000 low-altitude economic enterprises nationwide, of which more than 1,600 new enterprises were added from January to March 2024.
Capability: my country's low -altitude aircraft is booming. Information and communication, Beidou navigation, batteries, motors and other technologies have continued to iterate. New aircraft represented by EVTOL have emerged. The continuous application has laid a certain foundation for the implementation of the business model.
The low -altitude economy can connect the economy, society, production and life.Through informatization and digital management technology, it will realize comprehensive three -dimensional transportation and low -altitude fusion flight represented by wisdom air exit behaviors.
At present, my country's low -altitude economy is still in the early stage of the rapid outbreak of industrial industries. In the manufacturing and infrastructure of aircraft, it is expected to usher in high -speed development. At the same time, with the orderly opening of the airspace and more demonstration scenes, the low economy will become more and more and more and more. Entering the lives of the public brings new momentum to economic development.
② Civil aircraft sailing
In 2023, the civil aviation industry recovered obvious. According to statistics from the International Air Transport Association (IATA), the total global aviation passenger transport in 2023 (calculated by income passenger kilometers) has been restored to 94.1%of the 2019 level.On December 6, 2023, the International Aviation Transportation Association increased sharply in the global aviation transportation industry's profit expectations in 2023.
The market share and market distribution of aircraft manufacturers are also constantly adjusting and changing. The supply chain safety, flight safety, and more and more political factors affect the distribution of the civil aviation market.Specifically:
(1) Boeing civil aircraft delivered for the fifth consecutive year to defeat Airbus.
(2) The Indian and the Middle East market has grown strongly.
(3) Japan's first domestic jet passenger aircraft SPACEJET R & D project has failed.
(4) C919 enters commercial flight, and the global civil aircraft ABC pattern is initially constructed.
The tension situation of geopolitics and supply chain is still impact on the global civil aircraft industry structure, which has the impact of the recent Boeing security incident storms, and the market share of Boeing and Airbus has been adjusted.Domestic civil aircraft represented by C919, based on domestic, radiated Southeast Asia, and global strategies, and steadily promote production planning plans, it is expected to become an increasingly important global civil aircraft participant and competitors.
From a domestic point of view, C919 has obtained 100 orders for each of three major airlines in, Southern India.India's Shangfei is based on domestic development strategies, radiating Asia -Pacific, and global development strategies, seize opportunities, implement market expansion and production capacity construction, and move towards a new era of large -scale series.
Fourth, the main investment line and suggestion to pay attention to individual stocks:
Related key stocks include:
The field of aviation equipment:
Aviation OEMs, Aircraft Enterprises, etc.
,,,,,,,,wait.
Low -altitude economy:
Aircraft manufacturing (carbon fiber -related enterprises, aviation aircraft -related enterprises, whole machine enterprises).
Air pipe system: Communication (,,,,, Chuanda Zhisheng, China Airlines Technology), Navigation (), surveillance (Sichuan Jiuzhou, Tianao Electronics, Les Information, Sichuan Dazhi).
Aviation parts manufacturing related enterprises.Hyunding mobility, aviation control control ,,, superconducting the west,
Nagpur Stock
Published on:2024-10-28,Unless otherwise specified,
all articles are original.