Jaipur Investment：BEFORE The Bell (US Open) 2024 APR9's five most important things before the market Waiting for InflationMarkets are in a holding patte ...

Source: Snowball APP, Author: 1 yuan Cosmic Investment, (

The five most important things before the market

WAITING for Inflace

Markets are in a holding pattern, with stock futures and treasuries calm heading tuesday's session, as traders await the next that will be proved by the. US Inflation Report on Wednessday. That Will Reverbete Through Bets on Central Bank Rate Cuts, Which Now Have TheEUROPEAN Central Bank Moving Earlier and Cutting by More than the Federal Reserve This year. That Dynamic is Stoking Talk the Potential RETURN OF EURO PARITY WI Th the dollar.

Base Cases

The Fed's Neel Kashkari Said The Base Case Remains that Inflation Will Continue to Fall and Said that the Labor Market in the us no Longer "" It's s s s s s s s Till Tight. James Bullard, The Former Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President, TOLD BLOOMBERG TV that Three Cuts This Year by the Fed Remains The "Base Case." o Bat on tuesday, though minutes from the bank's latest meeting are comingOn wednesday.

Hot Commodities

Commodities PriceS are Continuing to her or hold near Highs Pretty Much Across the Board. ZLED. Copper is sitting near a 15-MONTH HIGH On TIGHTER SUPPL and A Pickup in Global ManualIron Ore IS SET for its Best Two-Day Run in Two Years. And Oil is Close to the Strongest Level in Five Months, with Investors Weighing Tensions step support.

China and japan talks

US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen Wrapped Up Four Days of Talks in China with Against Any Moves to Bolster Russia's Militation Capacity IES "Will Face Significant Consequences if they do." Meanwhile, JAPANESE PRIME Minister Fumio Kishida Is Heading to Washington forora Summit with present Joe Biden, Seeking to Streangthen Alliances WHILE SIDESTEPPING ISSUES Including the Planned takeover of us Steel.Jaipur Investment

Coming up ...

The eConomic Calendar is quiet and so is the agnga for earnings, with update from the friend. he sale of its arguntina unit, ubs is in talks to get full ownership of itsChinese Platform and Blackstone is Closing in The Buyout of SkinCare Company L'Occitane. Given Japan's Recental, there are three competing regions for in ORS in Asia, with China and India Being The Other Two. Which of the Three has the most compeellInvestment Case for you? Do you explect india's elements to have any impact on global Financial markets? Share your views in the latest mliv public suitation.

Bond market summary

US Treasury Yields WERE Stable YesterDay. Markets Await The Report on Wedness WHERE Expectations Are A 3.4% Rise in the Headline Number and For A 3.7% Rise in T he core CPI Print. US IG CDS Spreads Tightned 1.5bp and Hy Spreads Tightned 6bp.The s & p and nasdaq after almost unchanged.

EUROPEAN EQUITY Indores Ended Higher. EUROPEAN IG CDS Spreads Tightnedned 0.6bp and Crossover Spreads WERe 0.6bp Tighter. Today. Asia ex-japan Ig CDS Spreads WERE 0.1bp Tighter.

Rating Changes

{TWO TUNISIAN Banks Upgraded to 'CCC+' On ReceDing Macroeconomic Instability; Outlooks Stable}

{MOODY's Ratings Affirms Merck & Co.'s A1 Ratings; Revises Outlook to Positive}

Macro trader viewpoint

{Academy Securities} / TCHIR (Through ZH): A market chart or Rooster Test

In a sense, this week is very simple.S & P and falling about 1%, while the 10 -year yield rose 20 basis points.Interest rate reduction expectations are slightly reduced, and the start time is expected to be slightly delayed.Everything seems to be "normal".So why do we get such a chart?

I have made some messy charts in the past, but this may be the worst ever.I thought about trying to repair it, but after such a week, why did I think I did not go all out for Rohan test?Kolkata Investment

I see three things in this chart (I am a little afraid of how psychologists will interpret my explanation, but I still want to say):

There is no consistent narrative between stocks and bonds.Sometimes we see related actions, but we also see many reverse related actions.Just like MAG 7 has died as an empirical rule, "bonds and stocks are related" experience laws may also need to be put away.

We have a reasonable "escape security" transaction.The low point from the mid -to -market to the low point has a brief decrease of 3%(which makes me more comfortable to see 10%of the decline in the increase of 5%).The plunge of stock prices, accompanied by the rise of bonds, seems to be caused by the fear of Iran's upcoming upgrade.Since the first battle last fall, this is the first time that I can really point out a geopolitical risk immediately that it has undoubtedly significantly affected the market.I expect more geopolitical "shocks" in the next few days and weeks. As long as the market seems to have basically not included major risks in the price (before the oil market is before stocks and bonds).I expect that the rise in oil prices will occur under any upgrade or expansion. This is what I think we will not see a "real" actions that evade safety, because I think the yield will be under pressure.Nagpur Investment

The liquidity is not deep.Regardless of my previous mood, after the rapid decline in Thursday, I was disrupted.This day started very well, because we had a little reverse action on Thursday, because there was nothing special about Israel and Iran.Then, the salary statement surpassed the highest expectations (I tend to this), and the yield of bonds has risen wisely (again, I think we have exceeded 4.4%now, and we will move towards 4.6%of 10 years).However, after some early swinging, the stock decided to rise in the strong economy.This is reasonable, but it must be contrary to the theme of the decline in stock declines with higher bond yields.At least when the end of the day is like this.From Thursday and Friday trading, I concluded that the depth of the market was very small (and daily traders, 0DTE options, etc. were amplifying actions).

This is the conclusion I got from the chaotic chart!

… The bottom line is that I still feel nervous about the risk of equity, and still doubt whether we will have any overall rotation (the performance of Russell this week is much worse than the S & P 500) ...

… I think the 10 -year period is now moving 4.4%to 4.6%.It may be due to the increased interest rate shear, not the increase in risk premiums, which causes most of the movement to this level.This should come. I hope to see 2S and 10s return to -20, or even close to 0.

… Just as Seargent Esterhaus likes to say, "Be careful there, because risks are increasing, we have demonstrated our sensitivity to them" ...

Big Ring Perspective Selection

DB: Minutes of the Fed at Conference -A 20th Base Points in the Reduction of the Fed?

In this report, we discussed why the Fed may need to see the core PCE index of 0.2%in the next few months to start the first rate of interest at the beginning of June.We also discuss the potential impact of recent solid inflation data on the prospects of interest rate cuts in 2024 and 2025.This is based on the framework of this cycle as the two -stage process. First of all, it is the insurance reduction or medium -term adjustment (see "(see" (medium -term) to adjust the Federal interest rate reduction narrative ").

… So what do the Fed need to see to reduce interest rates comfortably in June?The SEP in March provides a reasonable assessment starting point.The median forecast shows that there are three interest rate cuts expected this year. Although this is obviously an unreasonable problem, a point determines the result. The core PCE inflation at the end of the year is expected to reach 2.6%.This result is consistent with the running rate of 19 basis points at the end of the year.

Although the details of these data have an impact on the time point for interest rate cuts (for example, if the inflation is rising due to housing or super core factors, not the severe fluctuations of core product projects, the Federal Reserve is more concerned), we do not think that the next step0.3%of the two -month reading will be consistent with the interest rate cuts of the June FOMC meeting.On the contrary, we believe that the Fed needs to see the core PCE reading of at least 0.2%of the monthly reading in the next few months, so that there is enough confidence to cut interest rates in June.

We have some reasons for this: ...

DB: Market Guide: The situation last week can tell us the trend of next quarter

Last week was full of incidents for the market, including the fear of geopolitical upgrades and increasing concern about inflation.In response, the market's performance was weak, recording the worst week since January, and the rate of return on Treasury bonds for 30 years has also risen for the first time since October.

… In view of this, let's take a look at some lessons of the next quarter.

The market is obviously very worried about the prospects of geopolitics and inflation impact ...

Although the expectations of interest rate cuts are being excluded, the main problem is still the speed of any interest rate cuts, rather than whether there will be another interest rate hike.

3. There are more and more signs that the global economy is starting to accelerate again.

Although the focus of this week is the release of the United States in March, this may not be able to solve the problem of whether it will cut interest rates in June.

Last week, the European Central Bank might have a sign of interest rate cuts in June, but we learned from history that they do not have to follow the Fed.

Finally, we know from the first quarter that the first week of the quarter does not necessarily indicate where the remaining quarters will go.

Goldilocks: March Preview

We expect that the core of March will increase by 0.27%(0.3%compared to the market consensus), which corresponds to 3.70%of the annual growth rate (3.7%compared to the market consensus).We expect that the overall CPI in March will increase by 0.29%(0.3%compared to the market consensus), which corresponds to 3.37%of the annual growth rate (3.4%compared to the market consensus).Our forecast is consistent with 0.28%of CPI core services except for rent and the equivalent rent of owners, and the core PCE increase of 0.21%in March is consistent.We will update our core PCE forecast again after the CPI release and PPI release.

We emphasize the trend of the three key components we see in this month's report.First of all, we expect that aviation fares will decrease by 3.0%after the jump of 3.6%last month, reflecting the declined jet fuel price and the real -time air fare of our aviation team decline.Secondly, we expect that the prices of new and old cars in March will decline, reflecting the decline in promotional incentives for rebound and car auction used in use.Third, we expect that the housing inflation will slow down from last month (we predict that rent will increase by 0.37%and OER will increase by 0.45%), as the rent gap between the new lease and the continued lease will continue to shrink.

Looking forward to the future, we expect the monthly core inflation to slow to 0.20-0.25%.We see that the re -balance of the rental housing and the labor market in 2024 will bring further inflation, although we are expected to have a small shift, because the acceleration delay of medical care and the growth of single household rent continues to exceed more than multiple households.increase.We predict that the annual core CPI inflation in December 2024 is 3.0%, and the core PCE inflation is 2.4%.

{MS Weekly Warm-up}: The impact of the "no land" scenario

The expansion of the periodic leadership indicates that the market is turning to "no land".We recommend maintaining a high -quality curve in cyclical products and reiterating our attitude towards energy, which we have recently upgraded.After the release this week, the stock market is increasingly related to the yield.

… The interest rate has been pushed up; what does this stock market mean?... Three weeks ago, we noticed that the 10 -year US Treasury yield is about 4.35%, which will be an important technical level to observe the sensitivity of interest rates that may increase the stock market.Last Tuesday, the 10 -year yield surpassed this level for the first time this year. The rolling correlation of the stock and the bond yield further decreased to a negative value because the stock was sold.The performance of small -cap stocks and low -quality stocks did not perform well that day and week, and supported our views. These market fields continued to show a greater sensitivity of interest rates than large -cap stocks, especially when yields rising.In our opinion, if we see that the 10-year continues rising by more than 4.35-4.40%, although the sensitivity of interest rates may increase widely, we still expect the broader market and high-quality stocks perform well on the relative basis.

… Three weeks ago, we noticed that 4.35-4.40%of the 10-year US Treasury yield will be an important technical level to observe the sensitivity of interest rates to increase the stock market.Last Tuesday, the 10 -year yield surpassed this level for the first time this year. The rolling correlation of the stock and the bond yield have declined significantly because stocks were sold.Small -class stocks performed poorly that day and that week, and supported our views. Small -class stocks continued to show a greater sensitivity of interest rates than large -cap stocks, especially when yields rising.The 10 -year period was about 4.40%at the end of the weekend, making this dynamics the focus of short -term price action on Wednesday.

{Ubs (Donovan)}: Federal spokesman confirmed your belief (a solution ... #fomc101)

Market calendar is mainly noise.Quite a lot of noise comes from members of the Federal Reserve Council.Investors can choose the views they want to confirm their preset policy views.The recent remarks provide three options, three times to cut interest rates, be vigilant, or cut interest rates.Given the strange consistency decision of Powell Fed, the scope of views is even more important than in the past ...

… The emotional survey of small NFIB small companies is conducted by a political lobby.In the increasingly differentiated American society, political prejudice is an increasing risk for survey evidence.Emotional level is typical for a Democratic White House.

Financial media review selection

Regarding corporate bonds may continue to maintain a high price in the next few months

Strategic Dominique TOUBLAN "As long as the growth and interest rate are similar to 2004-06, we think it may be possible to maintain the spread of the spread for a period of time"

Travis King ", the head of Voya's US investment -level corporate bond department, may maintain a very tight state for a long time"

Matt Eagan "Loomis Sayles project manager" credit background is good, because we have more or less achieved soft landing ..Bangalore Stock Exchange. (Central Banks have already changed their positions "

{About stock trend shows the belief of the "landless" economy -Morgan Stanley}

"However, macro data and stock market leadership have begun to support the results of no landing ... Expansion is led by cyclical industry ... This supports the concept of the stock market is starting to deal with a better growth environment"

Pune Investment